Democrats,
No, I'm not going jive on you. You is better than me. When running for office (or, in fact, leading any organization), people utilize different levels of leadership in an effort to more effectively connect with their target audiences. During campaigns, voters have the ability to sense the level of leadership a candidate has mastered. And this matters, big time.
What do levels of leadership have to do with you being better than me? A lot -- and they're already having an effect on the 2008 primaries and presidential race. But before we jump right into the current races, it's important to see how leadership levels, and you and me, have played a critical role in prior elections...
A Look Back
The 2000 Election (Bush v. Gore) key messages:
- George W. Bush ran on a lot of ideas (compassionate conservatism, lower taxes, unity [ha!]), but his campaign could be summed up as "I'm the guy who's more or less just like you, so of course I'll represent you the best in the White House."
- Al Gore ran on a lot of ideas as well, which can be summed up as "I'm more responsible than Clinton, and I'm just plain smarter than Bush."
Revelation: For every "I" in Bush's message, there is a corresponding "you." Compare this to Gore's message of "me, them, me, them." Gore completely left
you, the voter, out of the message. This can be boiled down to Bush's
you-first message competing with Gore's
me-first message. Guess which message voters preferred?
The big idea here is that one candidate had the confidence and wherewithal to always remember who he was courting, and was able to keep his head above water. People see this as a signal of superior confidence and leadership skills. And in national politics,
these feelings can trump specific policy platforms (read this sentence a few more times, Democrats).
Now, onto the 2004 Election (Bush v. Kerry) key messages:
- George W. Bush ran on "I'll keep you safe."
- Kerry ran on "I'm ready for duty, and I'm just plain smarter than Bush."
You're smart. You see the pattern. Bush is still linking
himself with you in his message, and the Democrat, predictably, is still all about "me, me, me!" (Yes, we all know that Bush vaguely, barely and shoddily won each race, but Gore and Kerry should have wiped the electoral map with Bush's gaffes and inexplicable track record.)
Onto the Democratic Primaries
So, how do the Democratic candidates measure up to the
you is better than me leadership approach?
Hillary Clinton (primarily) focuses on the predictable Democratic message of "me"...
- I'll be ready on day one
- I am more experienced
- I am a woman
Yet, she also has some "you" messages as well...
- I'm going to worry about you every day
- I'm going to fight for you
- I care about you and your troubles
Yes, Hillary's
you-first messages are bit depressing (which is another traditional Democrat message pitfall), but at least she has a few
you messages in her collection.
Barack Obama (primarily) focuses on a less conventional message of "we"...
- Together, we can change America
- We are the ones we've been waiting for
Yet, Obama also has a secondary batch of messages, which are of the "me" variety...
- I did not vote for the war
- I will bring people together
- I will change the tone in Washington
Like Hillary, Barack tries to focus on his primary message points whenever possible, but will fall back into his secondary messages when under the gun.
So, where do they stand? The answer lies in a
simple leadership level calculus: You > We > Me. Simply put,
you-first messages are stronger than
we-first messages, are both are stronger than
me-first messages.
If Hillary plans on winning, she's going to need to shift her focus from the less powerful
me-first messages to her
more meaningful
you-first messages (she'll also need to clean them up to be less pessimistic). She can do this, but it's not very likely due to her depressingly piggish chief strategist
Mark Penn.
If Hillary somehow does manage to shift to
you, then Obama's
movement-like 'we-first' messages get trumped -- he'll have nowhere to go but back to his store of weaker
me-first messages. See the problem for Obama? He doesn't have any substantive
you-
first messages (did you catch that,
Mr. Axelrod?). Fascinating.
The General ElectionNo matter who wins the primaries, Democrats will have a leg up on John McCain. Because, you guessed it, McCain is a
me-first candidate:
- I am a war hero
- I am a maverick (ooh, sorry, I mean 'conservative,' my friends)
- I was for the surge when nobody else was
- I called for Rumsfeld's resignation when nobody else did
- I co-wrote McCain-Feingold (notice whose name is first, my friends? Yeah, thought you did.)
Could this be the underlying reason why Republicans feel so skeeved out about their candidate? This kind of personality candidate sounds more like a modern Democrat ("me, me, me!") than a modern Republican leader who effortlessly stays focused on the
you.
To John's credit, he does try to use some
we messages as well, but these are secondary and not very popular with his base. Sadly,
we as a pronoun rings very socialistic to Republicans.
Barring extraordinary factors, we can use the
You > We > Me leadership level calculus to predict who has the best chance of winning races...
The Primary Calculus
Barack's
we beats Hillary's
me unless Hillary can quickly shift her message to one that says
you matter more than
she does
.
The Election Calculus
Barack's
we beats McCain's
me. Even if McCain reaches into his backup store of
we messages, it'll be hard to compete with Obama's primary
we messages.
Clinton's
me ties McCain's
me, but Clinton has a backup supply of you messages she can deploy for the knock-out punch against McCain's backup selection of we messages.In the end, while this is all instrumental to success, there is a very simple lesson for any candidate to glean:
Voters are the ones voting. Think of them first, and the right words will follow.